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A challenging outlook for 2023



In this new era, since Vladimir Putin disclosed his true agenda, everything depends on everything else. End of the year contemplations and self-reflections will have to zoom out and understand how everything is interconnected. The message is, no more individual problem-solving approaches.


As you might know, I’m a fan of Martin Wolf. Chief economics commentator at the Financial Times. He shares a fascinating thought: “It’s not just theoretically true that everything depends on everything else. It is a truth we can no longer ignore in practice.” He wrote in his article "How to think about policy in a polycrisis” in the Financial Times last 29th of November.

His idea is for economists to recognize how the economy is interconnected with other social forces. Navigating today’s societal storms, compels us to develop a wider understanding: “We have to think systematically.” This applies to every organization, either private or public. So indeed, also your organization.


Wolf takes into consideration four aspects that impact every organization. First, the energy crisis. Second – as a result of the first - inflation. Third, the slowdown of economic growth, even economic decline in some regions. Fourth, although this is – unsurprisingly - an unhappy picture, it could all turn out far more worse.

Will there be enough energy for both this, as well as the next winter? Will renewable energy sources develop brisk enough? Will the increasing interest rates, deemed inevitable (???) by central banks, unnecessarily fuel the economic recession? Will developing countries get absorbed in a food crisis? How will the war in Ukraine proceed? And how will domestic affairs in Russia and China make one’s way?


A decade ago, in 2012, the OECD deliberately brought to life the “New Approaches to Economic Challenges” (NAEC), for equivalent economic questions. Everything is related to everything: that applies to every organization.


Overview is a requirement to acumen present times, through careful analyses of underlying societal developments. This is the key opportunity for 2023. And also the good news!


A promising and delightful prospect for 2023. Unsuspected opportunities lie ahead for each and every organization. What role will your organization choose to play in the next economic recovery? And what role are you going to take on yourself? So to say, what is it you would want to contribute to this economic recovery? And who and what caliber of people do you need to be surrounded by to realize a successful new year?


Please feel welcome to exchange thoughts together on these matters,


I wish you and your loved ones a prosperous, healthy and wonderful 2023.


Warm regards,

Aegeus

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