The Illusion of the Sidelines

Holidays are there, also, to create distance from the daily grind. To take time for yourself and your loved ones, to recover and to broaden and deepen your perspective. Yet the world has not stood still. The carefree, summery cheerfulness contrasts sharply with the geopolitical realities confronting us today. Conflicts, elections and shifting power blocs inevitably affect every organisation, sometimes positively, often negatively. For organisations, these are not distant background noises but forces that shape strategy, reputation and continuity.

This brings us to an insight already a century old. In The Magic Mountain, Thomas Mann described two worldviews locked in fierce conflict: the rational-liberal Settembrini versus the dogmatic-revolutionary Naphta. Reason versus purity, compromise versus confrontation. It ended in a duel, and everyone lost. A hundred years later, it sounds chillingly relevant.

In the United States, we witnessed the storming of the Capitol: a presidential election no longer accepted, institutions shaken to their core. In Poland, after years of erosion under PiS, the rule of law is now slowly being restored, unlocking billions in EU funds. Hungary is moving in the opposite direction: Orbán is steadily building an illiberal regime, heightening reputational and investment risks for businesses. In the UK, Labour’s landslide masked a strong populist vote for Reform UK: the institutions still stand, but the electorate is becoming increasingly fragmented. And in the Netherlands, we saw the Schoof cabinet collapse after less than a year, as the largest party could not tolerate its own compromise, followed, unprecedentedly in parliamentary history, by a party even withdrawing from a caretaker government. A truly remarkable manoeuvre, to put it mildly…

For organisations, these are not political sidenotes but hard realities. Without an independent judiciary, there is no contractual certainty. Without stable coalitions, there is no reliable energy or tax policy. Without inclusivity, there is no young talent willing to work for you. And without a credible position in the public debate, a single conspiracy tweet can undo years of careful brand-building.

The lesson from Davos still applies: neutrality does not exist. Organisations believing they can rise above the fray are deceiving themselves. You either choose the values of the rule of law, cooperation and stability, or you are drawn into Naphta’s camp of anger and purity.

And in today’s economy, only one rule of thumb holds: if you remain on the sidelines, you lose not only the debate, but the future itself.

You are warmly welcome to exchange thoughts about the future of your own role and the composition of your team.

Warm regards,  

Aegeus